“Turtles all the way down" is an expression of the problem of infinite regress. The saying alludes to the mythological idea that the Earth is flat and is supported on a “World Turtle’s” back. It suggests that this turtle rests on the back of an even larger turtle, which itself is part of a column of increasingly larger turtles that continues indefinitely. Maybe not turtles but what phenomena or forces undergird our physical world and ourselves? Is the universal scaffolding the same at all scales – all the way down?
From Wikipedia: The uncertainty principle, also known as Heisenberg's indeterminacy principle, is a fundamental concept in quantum mechanics. It states that there is a limit to the precision with which certain pairs of physical properties, such as position and momentum, can be simultaneously known. In other words, the more accurately one property is measured, the less accurately the other property can be known.
Simply put: we can never really know exactly what’s going on.
In the social world of human beings, not knowing what is going on, over the long term, could lead to outbursts of anger in some, evangelistic zeal in others. Concern, worry, and even chronic anxiety might also plague us. Climate change is one of those long festering issues that could result in a sense of unease for untold millions. What will our future climate be like. Will it get too hot to survive? Are we the cause of the perceived climate catastrophe? What are we going to do about it? Should we seek stricter environmental controls or should we fight against restrictive regulations or unwarranted and ineffective climate remediation policies? Stress! Anxiety! Illness! Yikes!
Maybe such uncertainty and anxiety are unwarranted. On the grand scale of things - perhaps supported by turtles - for me anyway, our global climate future seems quite certain. The Story of Climate Change reveals the climatological path forward:
Our planet is currently traversing a region of the Milky Way galaxy that can trigger periods of intense cloudiness and cold. If our 675-million-year climate model reasonably reflects Earth's past climate trends, and if the relationships between galactic radiation flux intensity, the galactic orbital position of our solar system, and Earth's climate are indeed real, then, we are currently passing through the Sagittarius arm, the Milky Way's largest spiral - the region of space where high levels of galactic cosmic radiation drive atmospheric ionization promoting a shift towards cloudier, colder and icier climates. We are now in the middle of an Ice Age. This Ice Age is defined by further global cooling accompanied by periodic glacial expansions and retreats. The warmer, high frequency, out-of-plane galactic orbital oscillation driven climate response will eventually break the cooling feedback loops and end the Ice Age. But then, every 30 million years or so as we descend into the next in-plane cold climate trough, another Ice Age will likely occur until the entire arm region is crossed – about 180 million years for the Sagittarius arm. This galactic region was last transited by the Earth about 675 million years ago during the Cryogenian Period, home of the Snowball Earth hypothesis.
Ice Age Termination
During our planet’s descent into the Pleistocene cold climate trough, after the critical minimum global temperature is reached and glacial inception has occurred, glacial-interglacial cycles can continue at a steady pace for a couple of million years driven by the 41k year Milankovitch planetary obliquity cycle. As we descend further into this cold trough with the in-plane cosmic radiation increasing, the global temperature continues to fall. The 100k year coupled Milankovitch eccentricity orbital cycle now begins to predominate by modulating and enhancing precession and obliquity effects producing the longer, 100k year glacial-interglacial period. In another million years or so, as the out-of-plane high frequency climate driver forces the global temperatures warmer, the 100k year eccentricity coupled glacial-interglacial cycle will eventually revert to the 41k year obliquity dominant cycle until continued warming temperatures over the following two million years finally terminate this Ice Age.
Perhaps we should all calm down, take a breath and just enjoy the ride. Besides, we are now on the upside of this cold climate trough - warmer from here - for the next 15 million years at least. Future climate change is all but certain – and the future is long.
Regards,
Kirby Schlaht